Confuse about Deciding to invest in Pakistan Real Estate?…..”Understand the Cycle” !!!

 Real Estate Investment Cycle

property cycle can be seen as a logical sequence of recurrent events reflected in demographic, economic and emotional factors  that affect supply and demand for property subsequently influencing the property market.

Pakistan realInvestment-cycle

The first recorded pioneer of studying property cycles was homer hayat (1895–1984) in 100 years of real estate values in Chicago (1933). It is widely recognised that property (along with other forms of investment) follows a predictable cycle. The property cycle has three recognized recurring phases of Boom, slump, and recovery. The cycle follows a consistent pattern which can be accurately assessed by following the trends of a collective basket of Key Driver (as outlined below).

Property cycle phases

The property cycle follows a predictable pattern as sure as night follows day. This pattern reveals three distinct phases being Boom followed by Slump followed by Recovery before the next Boom commences etc. The property cycle (unimpeded) will always follows this pattern so a Boom cannot precede another Boom without first experiencing a Slump followed by a Recovery before the next Boom can arrive. The property cycle must have a ‘free market’ where property ownership is attainable by citizens without, significant government restrictions on ownership or, any form of monopoly.

The following is an overview only of some of the elements evident in each of the property cycles phases.

Boom

When the Boom phase commences most people fail to believe the Boom will last and think it is just a short term anomaly because they do not have the context of understanding the property cycle.

What is observed during the Boom phase includes:

  • Rents rise to levels which place significant financial pressure on tenants
  • The time it takes for a property to sell after being listed for sale reduces markedly
  • Property prices rise
  • Yields fall as prices rise proportionally more than rents rise
  • There are few mortgagee/forced sales
  • Property finance is easy to obtain and there are a number of new lending products making borrowing easier
  • People borrow against their increased house values and spend this money on consumer items (TVs, boats, holidays, cars, etc.)
  • There are many property seminars competing for investor dollars
  • Property is a hot topic in the media. Initially there is much speculation about how price growth will continue, but later in the Boom the media turns its attention to the reduced affordability of property
  • There is a lot of discussion about how this Boom will never end i.e. “it is different this time” and expectations that there will be no subsequent Slump phase

Slump

The Slump phase typically commences a lengthy period of time (often years) before most people realise the property market is in the Slump phase, as there is a delay between the shifting trends of the ‘Key Drivers’ and the impacts that are evidenced in the property market. The slump is usually the longest phase in the property cycle. The longer and bigger the preceding Boom, the longer and harder the subsequent Slump is likely to be. In contrast to popular opinion property values do not necessarily fall during a Slump, values may simply stall for a lengthy period.

What is observed during the Slump phase includes:

  • Increased vacancies of rental properties
  • Reduced cash flow for investors
  • Property price growth stagnates and/or property values fall
  • The length of time to sell a property increases markedly
  • Increased number of mortgagee/forced sales
  • Property finance is more difficult to obtain
  • There is much ‘doom and gloom’ about property values being too high in the media
  • Many property investors experience lower cashflow and sell down their property portfolios to some degree, or completely.

   Recovery

The recovery phase is always much shorter than the slump or boom phases.

What is observed during the Recovery phase includes:

  • Increased rents and cash flows
  • The length of time to sell a property reduces
  • Property prices begin to increase
  • Much confusion in the media reigns about whether recent property value growth is sustainable
  • Many potential property purchasers delay buying because they evidenced value falls or a slow market in the preceding slump.

Which Real Estate Cycle stage are we in today?

A cycle doesn’t really have a start or a stop. There are no magic indicators either that can point us exactly to the beginning or end of a specific stage.

However business common sense and economic and housing commentaries by respected economists can help us.

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Real Estate Cap Rates !

cap-rate-landlords-property-management                                                  The capitalisation rate or cape    rate of a commercial, or a    residential one that will go on    rent, allows a buyer to gauge  projected annual return on  investment of the property  before purchase.

The cap rate of property is a major deciding factor for investors because it allows them to compare the ROI of one property with another, as well as with other investment options Continue reading

DHA Allocation Files Rates on 10 Oct !

 

rising-graph

Phase Plot Size Price
File 9/10 1Kanal Rs.48.00Lac
File 9/10 10Marla Rs.33.00 Lac
File 9/10 5Marla Rs.18.25 Lac
File 9 Extension 1Kanal Rs.43.00 Lac
File 9 Extension 10Marla Rs.26.00 Lac
File 9 Extension 5Marla Rs.16.00 Lac
File Phase 8  1 Kanal Rs.56.50 Lac
File Phase 8  10Marla Rs.32.50 Lac
File Phase 8 5 Marla Rs.21.50 Lac
File Phase 7 1Kanal Rs.67.00 Lac
File Phase 7  10Marla Rs.47.00 Lac
File 9 Shuhada Town 5 Marla Rs.26.50 Lac
Phae 7 Commercial 4 Marla  Rs.185.00 Lac

For More Information and Current Rates 0333 056 0333

DHA File Rates on 9 Oct !

 rising-graph  
Phase Plot Size Price
File9/10 1Kanal Rs.48.00Lac  
File9/10 10Marla Rs.34.00 Lac
File9/10 5Marla Rs.18.00 Lac
File 9 Extension 1Kanal Rs.36.00 Lac
File 9 Extension 10Marla Rs.26.00 Lac
File Phase 8  1 Kanal Rs.57.50 Lac
File Phase 8  10Marla Rs.34.00 Lac
File Phase 8 5 Marla Rs.22.50 Lac
File 9 Shuhada Town 5 Marla Rs.27.25 Lac
Phase 7 Commercial 4 Marla Rs.185.00 Lac

Rates provided are valid at the time of this post only.They vary througout the day according to demand and supply. For Latest/ongoing rates Contact 0333 056 0333

Phase 7 Plots for Sale!

Size        Block         Plot         Price

1kanal        U             1511         98Lac

1kanal        W             1283      122Lac

1 kanal        Z              1069      88Lac

1 Kanal       Q               914        108Lac

1Kanal       Y                80          125 lac

2Kanal      U              1597        205 Lac

10Marla    Y              3677/10    55 lac

For More information Contact at 0333 056 0333

 

DHA File Rates on 4 Oct !

Phase

Plot Size

Price

File 9/10 1 Kanal Rs. 49.25 Lac
File 9/10 10 Marlas Rs. 35.50 Lac
File 9 5 Marlas Rs. 18.00 Lac
File 8 1 Kanal Rs. 60.00 Lac
File 8 10 Marlas Rs. 36.00 Lac
File 8 5 Marlas Rs. 22.75 Lac
File 9 Shaudha Town 5 Marlas Rs. 27.75 Lac

The Prices Are Subject to Change & May Vary Without Prior Notice

DHA File Rates on Oct 3 !

Phase

Plot Size

Price

File 9/10 1 Kanal Rs. 50.00 Lac
File 9/10 10 Marlas Rs. 35.50 Lac
File 9 5 Marlas Rs. 18.50 Lac
File 8 1 Kanal Rs. 63.50 Lac
File 8 10 Marlas Rs. 36.00 Lac
File 8 5 Marlas Rs. 22.50 Lac
File 9 Shaudha Town 5 Marlas Rs. 28.25 Lac

DHA File Rates On 30th Sept !

Phase

Plot Size

Price

File 9/10 1 Kanal Rs. 50.75 Lac
File 9/10 10 Marlas Rs. 36.50 Lac
File 9 5 Marlas Rs. 20.00 Lac
File 8 1 Kanal Rs. 65.00 Lac
File 8 10 Marlas Rs. 37.00 Lac
File 8 5 Marlas Rs. 22.50 Lac
File 9 Shaudha Town 5 Marlas Rs. 28.50 Lac

The Prices Are Subject to Change & May Vary Without Prior Notice

DHA File Rates, On 28th Sept !

Phase

Plot Size

Price

File 9/10 1 Kanal Rs. 50.750 Lac
File 9/10 10 Marlas Rs. 36.50 Lac
File 9 5 Marlas Rs. 19.50 Lac
File 8 1 Kanal Rs. 65.50 Lac
File 8 10 Marlas Rs. 37.50 Lac
File 8 5 Marlas Rs. 23.00 Lac
File 9 Shaudha Town 5 Marlas Rs. 27.50 Lac

The Prices Are Subject to Change with Market Conditions.

DHA File Rates on 26 Sept !

Phase

Plot Size

Price

File 9/10 1 Kanal Rs. 51.00 Lac
File 9/10 10 Marlas Rs. 37.00 Lac
File 9 5 Marlas Rs. 20.00 Lac
File 8 1 Kanal Rs. 65.50 Lac
File 8 10 Marlas Rs. 37.50 Lac
File 8 5 Marlas Rs. 23.00 Lac
File 9 Shaudha Town 5 Marlas Rs. 28.00 Lac